I need help withh this decison???(fant bball)?

im wining in overall but i need a win n low era to widen lead up. ( i lead 6-7) do i have pavano pith tmrw or no. i can get rowland smith(vs. yanks), bumgarner(vs. nats) padilla (vs. cubs) or oliver (vs. twins) i was think either pavno or bumgarner. help me. 10 points. thanksssssss